Mental Model

Social Proof/Herd Mentality

Summary

Social Proof is a cognitive bias that describes how we tend to be heavily influenced by what others around us are doing.

Sometimes referred to as Herd Mentality, Social Proof is a heuristic (or shortcut) where we rely heavily on the thoughts and actions of our peers when making decisions. This tendency is even stronger when we are feeling uncertain.

The key idea is that in any given situation, and especially when we are confused or under stress, our choices will lean towards following the crowd.

Mental Model

Redundancy/Backups/Backup Systems

Summary

Redundancy is an idea from Engineering that refers to the process of including extra components within a system such that they can be brought into use in the case of a failure so that the system continues to function.

By implementing redundancy within a system we  can greatly reduce the chances of the system itself breaking down.​ Or if the system does fail, backups can be used to get it functioning again as quickly as possible.

The key idea is that redundancy is a way to reduce or eliminate the potential negative impact of a system failing.​

Mental Model

Base Rates,  Base Rate Fallacy, and Bayes Theorem

Summary

A Base Rate is a type of probability that describes the likelihood of an event when no new or more specific information is available. 

Another way to think about it is that Base Rates cover the general or usual chance that something will (or will not) happen, as opposed to recent or more specific information that may alter the probability for the event.

The key idea is that Base Rates cover what usually happens if nothing new or interesting occurs to impact the outcome.​

Base Rate Neglect or Base Rate Fallacy refers to our tendency to ignore data about what usually happens and instead focus just on new, recent, or interesting information.

Bayes Theorem is a mathematical equation where you can input the Base Rate for an event along with the probabilities associated with new information to get the actual overall probability for the event.​

Mental Model

Checklists

Summary

A checklist is a tool that can be used to outline a set of 'things' that need to be completed.

Since humans have limited memory and attention, checklists help us accomplish tasks that would otherwise be too complex or error-prone.

The key idea is that checklists are a tool to help us increase accuracy and consistency.